Most of U.S. aluminum comes from Canada. Industry says ‘good luck’ replacing it - BNN Bloomberg

Canada’s aluminum industry is not worried about U.S. tariffs continuing into the new year. While Canadian domestic producers will absorb the loss of U.S. business and find other customers, the U.S. will find it nearly impossible to replace its cheapest supplier, says Jean Simard, president and chief executive officer at Aluminum Association of Canada. “We wish them good luck,” says Simard. The U.S. depends on Canada for 75 per cent of its imported primary aluminum, covering 60 per cent of its yearly usage, the association says. With 50 per cent tariffs in place, he says American industries, not Canadian smelters, will bear the brunt of the financial pain, as U.S. manufacturers face soaring production costs. “They’re pricing themselves out of export markets because, basically, they’re paying US$1500 to US$2,000 a tonne more for the metal than their competitors in Europe are paying for,” says Simard. Aluminum extrusions sit in storage at Magna Stainless and Aluminum in Montreal on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov Now that Canada has announced 50 per cent counter-tariffs on American goods to retaliate dollar for dollar, he doesn’t think the new tariffs on American aluminum will hurt Canada. “We’ve been there before,” says Simard. “The government has the means to be able to support any industry, any company that is bearing some of the impact of these tariffs on imports.” Canada will always have other markets The U.S. produces 675,000 tonnes of aluminum while it consumes four million tonnes, he says. “They need the metal.” A U.S. Geological Survey report details the country’s shrinking metal-making infrastructure, showing that only two of the four remaining smelters are running at full capacity while the others are temporarily shut down. Even if proposed aluminum projects move ahead, by the end of the decade, he estimates domestic production would only be able to increase by one million tonnes, which is the expected increase in demand for that period of time. Cans of Coors Light beer are shown during a plant tour at the Molson Coors Toronto Brewery in Toronto on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette So while Canada’s aluminum has markets in the U.S. and Europe, it can arbitrage its way toward Europe and other markets, he says. “We will never be in dire need of finding markets. It’s the markets that are in dire need of finding metal,” says Simard. Aluminum production needs energy The U.S.…