Barlow’s Research Roundup: These two Canadian companies benefit from surging European gas prices

TOP LINKS Barlow’s Research Roundup: These two Canadian companies benefit from surging European gas prices SCOTT BARLOW MARKET STRATEGIST PUBLISHED 37 MINUTES AGO COMMENTS SHARE SAVE FOR LATER Listen to this article Learn more about audio Log in or create a free account to listen to this article. Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS Scotiabank analyst Chris Macculloch finds two Canadian companies benefiting from high European gas prices, “Overseas natural gas prices advanced sharply last week in response to low European storage levels and continued disruptions in Middle East LNG exports … European natural gas storage is currently tracking at a five-year low at 2.6 Tcf [trillion cubic feet] (as of September 10, 2026), representing 67 per cent of total capacity entering the final weeks of injection season. For context, European storage levels are ~0.3 Tcf shy of the EU’s mandated target of 75 per cent by the start of winter heating season … VET and TOU benefit from elevated overseas natural gas prices. Within the Scotiabank GBM upstream coverage universe, Vermilion Energy and Tourmaline Oil offer the only meaningful exposure to European natural gas and global LNG prices. We estimate VET’s international gas production is 97 mmcf/d [million cubic feet per day] in Q4/26 and 93 mmcf/d in 2027 (100-per-cent European), while TOU’s exposure to international pricing stems from its LNG feedgas supply contracts, with 203 mmcf/d in Q4/26 (67-per-cent JKM/ 33-per-cent European), expanding to 248 mmcf/d in 2027 (82-per-cent JKM /18-per-cent European) …we show our estimated sensitivities to a US$5/mcf change in overseas natural gas prices (TTF, NBP, JKM); the key highlight that is for every US$5/mcf increase in prices, VET and TOU’s FCF yield would expand by 4.5 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively, all else remaining equal” FUND MANAGERS STILL BULLISH BofA Securities investment strategist Michael Hartnett outlined the findings of his monthly survey of global fund managers, “Sept BofA Global FMS shows investor conviction on macro boom & fast-paced AI capex still strong; but risks of disorderly bonds and DEM midterm sweep rising; FMS cash jumps from 3.5 per cent to 3.9 per cent as excess bullishness, which stymied summer risk upside, now fading…when cash back in 4-5 per cent neutral zone, safe to increase risk exposure … Fed seen as behind-curve…first time since Sep’22 investors…