Barlow’s Research Roundup: Strategist warns of a sharp spike in crude prices

TOP LINKS Barlow’s Research Roundup: Strategist warns of a sharp spike in crude prices SCOTT BARLOW MARKET STRATEGIST PUBLISHED 49 MINUTES AGO COMMENTS SHARE SAVE FOR LATER Listen to this article Learn more about audio Log in or create a free account to listen to this article. Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow MUCH HIGHER CRUDE BofA Securities commodity strategist Francisco Blanche sees the potential for a sharp spike higher in crude prices, “In our view, continued geopolitical skirmishes through year-end are now the most likely scenario and we raise our 2H26 Brent forecast to $95/bbl from $83/bbl. Although alternative routes and escorted Hormuz shipments have mitigated some of the shortfall, damaged infrastructure and rising geopolitical tensions make rapid normalization unlikely. Continued inventory draws support an average Brent price of around $80/bbl in 2027, but the most important change is an expanding tail risk: strategic and commercial inventories are becoming progressively thinner while physical crude markets are already signaling acute near-term scarcity through extreme backwardation. Despite this tightness, energy prices are still relatively affordable when adjusted for income and inflation, and growth is not slowing down yet. Thus, if disruptions persist into spring 2027 or oil infrastructure damage intensifies, ICE Brent front month contracts may have to spike well above $150/bbl to curb global oil demand.” OBESITY MARKET MASSIVE Scotiabank analyst Louise Chen notes the scale of the obesity treatment market after a meeting with Novo Nordisk A/S, “NVO estimates that by 2035, there will be over 1.2B people living with obesity. Only <2% of people are getting treated with GLP-1. Even if they get on treatment, the average stay time is nine months. Obesity is associated with more than 200 different complications. Obesity has driven unprecedent growth in healthcare. It has continued to do so. Over time, more obese patients will get on treatment and stay on treatment longer. The market has evolved rapidly, including the trend of consumerization. NVO will expand its pipeline and find new products that it could sell more like consumer goods than traditional medicines, building off what’s occurring with its obesity treatments. NVO noted that 90% of sales of its Wegovy pill have been through a cash channel. Other companies in our coverage universe have also talked about…