Carney prepared for risk that Trump might order U.S. to invade Canada: ‘That’s just risk management’

Advertisement 1 This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Breadcrumb Trail Links HomeNewsCanada Carney prepared for risk that Trump might order U.S. to invade Canada: 'That’s just risk management' The prime minister had several talking points in his interview with the New York Times. But invasion was the one that stood out Author of the article: By Chris Knight Published Sep 24, 2026 Last updated 13 minutes ago 5 minute read Join the conversation Prime Minister Mark Carney at Parliament, Sept. 24, 2026 in Ottawa. PHOTO BY DAVE CHAN /AFP via Getty Images Article content Prime Minister Mark Carney touched on a wide range of topics during an hour-long interview with the New York Times yesterday — F-35 jets, Starlink satellites, trade in potash and automobiles and more — but the biggest takeaway was that he had prepared over the past year for the “extreme tail risk” that U.S. President Donald Trump might order military action against Canada. Article content Article content “I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” said Carney, using a term from the financial world that was his metier as a former central banker for Britain and Canada. “That’s just risk management … it would be irresponsible not to.” Article content Article content NP Posted Get a dash of perspective along with the trending news of the day in a very readable format. Sign Up By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. Article content The expression refers to a scenario that is considered unlikely but not impossible — the “tail” of a probability curve where the centre represents the most likely outcomes. Article content Carney told the Times that, based on Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state, he had carefully examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action, but declined to discuss in detail what that involved. Article content Timothy Sayle, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto, said Carney’s comments indicate a valid concern. Article content “It makes sense to me that it’s at the real extreme end of possibilities, but I don’t think it’s a zero per cent chance,” he told National Post. Article content The U.S. incursion into Venezuela this year and its threats against Greenland made its allies, including Canada and Europe, take notice, Sayle…