Joe Varner: China doesn’t even have to pressure Canada to keep Liberals in line

Prime Minister Mark Carney meets with President of China Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China on Friday, Jan. 16, 2026. PHOTO BY SEAN KILPATRICK/THE CANADIAN PRESS Article content Remarks from Conservative MP Michael Chong on his recent Taiwan visit should not have required saying. Article content “Canada is an independent, sovereign country. We do not take direction from foreign governments on where MPs can travel internationally,” stated Chong on May 17, a day prior to his departure. Article content RECOMMENDED VIDEOS Article content Yet Beijing’s Ambassador’s response — accusing Canadian parliamentarians of sending “a wrong message of support for Taiwan independence” that “gravely contravene(s)” Canada’s One China policy as defined by Beijing — illustrates the growing effort by the Chinese state to define the acceptable boundaries of Canadian political behaviour. Article content Article content The larger concern is not simply China’s pressure campaign, but whether Ottawa is gradually conditioning itself to avoid actions that may provoke Beijing before pressure even needs to be applied. Article content Article content There’s a growing tendency in western democracies to speak about China in carefully calibrated language designed to avoid unnecessary confrontation. China is not simply a strategic competitor. It is also a major trading partner, a critical manufacturing hub, and an increasingly important actor in global supply chains. For middle powers such as Canada, the economic consequences of deteriorating relations with Beijing are real. Article content But there is a danger in allowing economic caution to evolve into strategic hesitation. Over time, governments can begin moderating not only their rhetoric, but their willingness to act, respond, or even acknowledge security realities that risk upsetting Beijing. The result is not necessarily open alignment with China, but something subtler and potentially more dangerous: strategic self-deterrence. When governments begin limiting their own sovereign behaviour out of fear of economic retaliation or diplomatic friction, external pressure no longer needs to be directly applied. Canada increasingly risks falling into that trap. Article content Article content As tensions periodically rise between Ottawa and Washington over trade, industrial policy, or sovereignty questions, some voices within Canada’s political and business establishment advocate reducing dependence on the United…